COVID-19 update

20 March , 2020

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, notes the alarm brought about by the publication of a preliminary prediction model of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa. The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) model was a very preliminary static model developed to assess different modelling strategies and a wide range of scenarios. It did not, however, seek to make robust predictions regarding the likely course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. The confidence intervals around the estimates produced for the individual scenarios are wide. There is still much uncertainty regarding the likely trajectory of the pandemic in South Africa. As such, the NICD is gathering data on the local epidemic and has established a specialized advisory group of experienced modellers to develop more sophisticated and robust models for South Africa.

As of 20 March 2020, we confirm 52 new additional COVID-19 cases that have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen for COVID-19. To date, the total number of COVID-19 cases stands at 202, with new additions from the Free State Province and the Gauteng Province accounting for more than 50% share value of the total confirmed COVID-19 cases. The provincial breakdown of the 52 new confirmed COVID-19 cases is as follows:

Gauteng Province

/A 33-year-old male who travelled to the United Kingdom and France
A 32-year-old female with pending travel history
A 56-year-old male who travelled to Switzerland
A 56-year-old female who travelled to Switzerland
A 34-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom and Austria
A 34-year-old male who travelled to Austria
A 27-year-old male with pending travel history
A 22-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 31-year-old male with pending travel history
A 52-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 54-year-old male who travelled to London
A 53-year-old male who travelled to Austria and Switzerland
A 32-year-old female with pending travel history
A 33-yar-old male with pending travel history
A 52-year-old male with pending travel history
A 20-year-old male with pending travel history
A 37-year-old male with pending travel history
A 47-year-old female with pending travel history
A 23-year-old male with no international travel history
A 32-year-old male with pending travel history
A 21-year-old male with pending travel history
A 34-year-old female with pending travel history
A 40-year-old female with pending travel history
A 41-year-old male with pending travel history
A 2-year-old male with pending travel history
A 39-year-old male with pending travel history
A 58-year-old male with pending travel history
A 56-year-old male who travelled to the United States of America
A 28-year-old male with pending travel history
A 67-year-old male who travel to the United Kingdom
An 11-year-old male who travelled to Spain
A 30-year-old male who travelled to the United States of America
A 53-year-old male who travelled to the United Kingdom

Free State Province

A 38-year-old male who travelled to France
A 54-year-old male with pending travel history
A 55-year-old male who travelled to France
A 52-year-old male who travelled to Israel
A 68-year-old male who travelled to Israel
A 74-year-old male with pending travel history
A 32-year-old male with pending travel history

Western Cape Province

A 31-year-old female who travelled to the United Kingdom
A 34-year-old who travelled to the Netherlands
A 26-year-old who travelled to the Netherlands
A 29-year-old with pending travel history
A 69-year-old male who travelled to Switzerland and Dubai
A 58-year-old who travelled to the United Kingdom, Austria and Tanzania
A 23-year-old male who travelled to the United Kingdom and Germany
A 43-year-old female who travelled to Canada and Austria
A 60-year-old male who travelled to Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Austria
A 62-year-old who travelled to the United Kingdom, Austria and Switzerland
A 63-year-old male who travelled to the United Kingdom and Italy